One last job. Then she’ll retire. But this job just might kill her. Isn’t that always the way?
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I’m going to say something that most creators will find controversial, especially since it will be DEVASTATING to their business.
I don’t think there will be a 2020 con season.
What’s more…I don’t think there will be a reliable 2021 con season either.
The most common strategy I’ve heard of combating COVID-19 is called the Hammer and the Dance.
It involves a large containment effort like we are seeing now until transmission falls to a low level, generally agreed to be something like .5 or something like that.
Then, things would begin to reopen. However, any time the transmission rate rises above 1, then everything would shut down again, which we just saw in China and Hong Kong.
Things would stay closed until the transmission rate fell, and then rise again, causing us to close everything down.
This will continue until there is a vaccine or herd immunity.
Now, a couple of things.
1 – Why would any city want to invite 50,000+ people into their town, throw them into a place that is a hotbed of infection, and risk surging their hospitals, when the whole reason we did this was NOT to surge the hospitals?
2 – Since you would never know WHEN the transmission rate would rise above 1, how could you ever plan travel to a city until there was either herd immunity or a vaccine?
I think we’ll be able to open stores and have small events, but Hong Kong can’t even keep their movie theaters open for a week yet and they are supposed to be way ahead of us as far as handling this issue.
I for one have $5,000 tied up in shows this year still, and I make about $30,000 every year off shows, which means it is absolutely painful to say this…
…however, I have no intention of doing any shows this year, except possibly local ones if they fall within CDC guidelines, and can’t plan for shows NEXT year because of the aforementioned containment strategy.
This also means I won’t be planning any concerts or sporting events or anything, as I will never be able to plan for things to be open given that it’s impossible to know when the transmission rate will rise.
But I also question bringing people together in a big event, guaranteeing transmission of the virus, and then sending those people back home to infect their loved ones.
That is LITERALLY what we’re all trying to avoid right now.
You can light me up for this if you want, but it’s the smart and prudent strategy to plan for a life without shows until 2022, for your safety and that of other people as well.
I know a lot of show organizers and this is as painful for me to write as if I were writing about not going to do signing in stores.
I love shows. Above that, they are a HUGE part of my company and brand image.
Not doing them for two years will absolutely cripple me, but I don’t know what other option I have if I want to keep the safety of myself and others in the front of my mind, while making sure that my business can survive into 2022.
I HAVE to evolve and change. I have no other choice. I will welcome the return of shows, but I don’t think you can plan for shows to be part of your income until 2022, and then, if I’m wrong…hey, at least you figured out how to make your business work another way.
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This is a conundrum that no one but you seem to see. We need that herd immunity to stop this, but to get it, we need everyone exposed which means that our hospitals can’t handle the influx of patients. The death rates are within 0.001 of the normal flu. What isn’t the same in the number of hospitalizations…that is way above the normal flu because this one causes pneumonia where the sick person need oxygen treatment or even a ventilator. This is all to keep from overwhelming our hospitals. If every one was exposed, the immunity level would go up and less people would get sick until it moved into corona virus 20…yep, the virus will keep mutating, getting stronger and more deadly. We have created our own monster with the over use of antibiotics and antivirals without killing that particular bug. It’s the same with bacteria…the more we vaccinate the more the bugs mutate and the more deadly they become. It is a circle that we have created and one that may eventually kill off all the but hardiest of mankind…..Hey, there’s you next book. Man does himself in through medicine.
I vote for vaccine development. The best “herd immunity” is the cut-and-paste variety, not the “let’s see how many of us suffer horribly and possibly die” variety. Vaccinations don’t cause mutations, they merely reveal them… and once a vaccine for a particular strain is developed, it is easier to adapt that vaccine for variant strains of that virus. We do it every year for influenza… that doesn’t cause influenza’s mutation though. It just responds to it.
But having said that, I love your book idea, “humans do themselves in via medicine”… anthology, anyone?
I am not a doctor, so I can’t speak to most of that, but I definitely think that we need to follow any doctor’s advice.
Tough as it is for us to hear this, I think you’re right, Russell. Time to pivot.
I have no easy answers, no “Three Easy Ways to Save Your Creative Business.” But it’s definitely better to begin ASAP rather than wait six months, discover “dang, Russell was right after all,” and scramble to play catch-up with far less reserves available to you.
Funny you use the word pivot…as…I may have something to help with that soon.